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17. Sexually Transmitted Infections

Table 17.3: Multiple Regression of Circa 2002 Urban HIV Prevalence on circa 1995 STI Prevalence and Other Socioeconomic Variables

Multiple Regression of Circa 2002 Urban HIV Prevalence on circa 1995 STI Prevalence and Other Socioeconomic Variables
Category	(1) Basic sample with syphilis	(2) Basic sample with gonorrhea	(3) Augmented sample with syphilis	(4) Augmented sample with gonorrhea
Age of epidemic (urban low) in 2002^a	0.177 (4.07)***	0.131 (2.00)*	0.12 (2.90)***	0.08 (1.70)*
Per capita national income, median 1996-2001	-1.344 (2.82)***	-1.177 (2.30)**	-0.929 (3.63)***	-0.949 (4.45)***
Income equality, Gini index, 1990s	0.125 (0.04)	3.186 (0.83)	5.349 (2.77)***	5.258 (2.79)***
Percentage of the population that is Muslim, 1999	-0.026 (4.05)***	-0.031 (3.50)***	-0.015 (3.45)***	-0.02 (4.10)***
Urban male-to-female ratio for those age 20-39, 1999	6.178 (2.03)**	6.199 (1.40)	3.27 (1.29)	3.038 (1.19)
Urban high-risk population dummy (1 if yes, 0 is no)	1.17 (2.83)***	0.564 (0.85)	0.894 (2.64)***	0.37 (0.71)
Logit syphilis in low-risk group, 1995^b	0.31 (2.46)**		0.233 (1.78)*
Logit gonorrhea in low-risk group, 1995^b		0.502 (1.92)*		0.479 (1.86)*
Constant	0.297 (0.05)	-0.791 (0.11)	-2.117 (0.63)	0.054 (0.02)
Number of observations	56	38	181	180
Number of countries	40	29	101	100
R²	0.57	0.56	0.5	0.51

Source: Authors' calculations. Syphilis and gonorrhea prevalence in 1995 (George Schmid, personal communication, April 5, 2004). HIV prevalence circa 2002 is from the urban low-risk tables in the U.S. Bureau of Census database on HIV prevalence. Other variables are from World Bank data.

* = significant at 10 percent; ** = significant at 5 percent; *** = significant at 1 percent.

Note: The figures in parentheses are robust t-statistics.

a. Age of epidemic is defined as the number of years since the first case of HIV/AIDS was reported.

b. The logarithm of the ratio of the prevalence to 1 minus the prevalence of the given STI for the low risk population in 1995.

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17.1 Association between Per Capita Income and Income Inequality with STI Prevalence for Low-Risk Groups, Selected Countries

17. Sexually Transmitted Infections

Table 17.3: Multiple Regression of Circa 2002 Urban HIV Prevalence on circa 1995 STI Prevalence and Other Socioeconomic Variables

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