5. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Burden of Disease and Risk Factor Estimates

Table 5.6: Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges for YLD and DALYs Arising from Uncertainty in Disability Weights for Selected Causes for Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2001SFTRET(thousands)

Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges for YLD and DALYs Arising from Uncertainty in Disability Weights for Selected Causes for Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2001SFTRET(thousands)
CauseYLD(3,0)Uncertainty rangeDALYs(3,0)Uncertainty range
Group I
Tuberculosis4,1342,706-6,21935,88234,400-37,900
Syphilis407310-5744,1224,021-4,286
Chlamydia2,2551,766-3,0732,4381,949-3,256
Gonorrhea2,5302,038-3,3692,5502,058-3,390
HIV/AIDS5,9734,142-8,19570,85768,900-73,000
Diarrheal diseases7,8364,236-12,90058,68555,100-63,800
Pertussis2,2911,763-2,98611,40810,900-12,100
Poliomyelitis12684-17013694-180
Diphtheria00-1164164-164
Measles193113-31923,09723,000-23,200
Tetanus1410-168,3378,329-8,335
Meningitis1,131915-1,4165,4775,255-5,756
Hepatitis B5228-962,0822,056-2,124
Hepatitis C2111-39844832-860
Malaria4,5013,521-5,67239,94439,000-41,100
Trypanosomiasis7249-1011,3331,310-1,361
Chagas' disease358275-501584500-727
Schistosomiasis1,313727-2,5631,525938-2,774
Leishmaniasis411291-6101,7571,636-1,955
Lymphatic filariasis4,4463,365-6,9474,4553,374-6,956
Onchocerciasis439361-541439361-541
Leprosy9356-142191154-239
Dengue53-10529526-533
Japanese encephalitis231187-276598554-644
Trachoma2,6182,023-3,1922,6212,025-3,195
Ascariasis1,311707-2,1901,413808-2,291
Trichuriasis713518-1,000800604-1,087
Hookworm disease74-136360-69
Lower respiratory infections4,4303,128-6,52583,57982,300-85,700
Upper respiratory infections181108-3181,6801,609-1,819
Otitis media1,336811-2,1361,424899-2,224
Maternal hemorrhage23261-1623,9233,750-3,851
Maternal sepsis3,290827-2,0485,2692,804-4,025
Hypertensive disorders0-01,8901,888-1,888
Obstructed labor1,349842-1,4772,4951,988-2,622
Abortion1,7321,034-2,3443,5032,803-4,112
Perinatal causes13,52510,300-18,10089,12185,900-93,800
Protein-energy malnutrition9,3376,616-14,30015,45012,700-20,400
Iodine deficiency2,6851,617-2,2062,8751,807-2,396
Vitamin A deficiency5834-88711685-740
Iron-deficiency anemia6,7364,782-10,3009,4887,530-13,000
Group II
Mouth and oropharynx cancers10780-1274,0794,049-4,097
Esophageal cancer4229-565,2515,235-5,262
Stomach cancer12495-1609,6139,577-9,643
Colon and rectal cancers241179-3155,0584,993-5,128
Liver cancer4937-637,9437,926-7,952
Pancreas cancer1816-191,6211,617-1,620
Trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers137117-15510,69710,700-10,700
Melanoma and other skin cancers106-15501497-505
Breast cancer308226-3865,5275,440-5,600
Cervix uteri cancer205140-2823,8003,732-3,875
Corpus uteri cancer276200-416908831-1,046
Ovarian cancer9871-1381,4881,460-1,527
Prostate cancer9163-1091,4791,448-1,494
Bladder cancer10476-1341,5041,474-1,532
Lymphomas, multiple myeloma6949-983,7703,746-3,795
Leukemia5833-863,9643,936-3,989
Diabetes mellitus5,6624,229-7,73615,80614,400-17,900
Endocrine disorders7,5814,447-12,70010,9477,814-16,100
Unipolar depressive disorders43,22330,400-53,60043,42930,600-53,800
Bipolar affective disorder8,6765,636-12,1008,6815,642-12,100
Schizophrenia10,1567,419-12,80010,5307,793-13,200
Epilepsy2,9421,541-5,7585,7594,356-8,573
Alcohol use disorders9,8086,086-15,70011,0097,286-16,900
Alzheimer's and other dementias8,1726,690-9,7909,6418,158-11,300
Parkinson's disease767513-1,0851,239984-1,557
Multiple sclerosis770501-1,039916647-1,185
Drug use disorders2,7361,693-3,8254,4063,361-5,493
Post-traumatic stress disorder2,0131,217-3,9182,0131,218-3,919
Obsessive-compulsive disorder3,1361,726-5,5323,1361,726-5,532
Panic disorder4,0172,530-6,0524,0172,530-6,052
Insomnia (primary)2,2191,314-3,8832,2191,314-3,883
Migraine4,8512,720-7,5034,8512,720-7,503
Mental retardation, lead-caused8,4745,358-12,1008,6015,484-12,300
Glaucoma4,1102,986-5,3934,1112,987-5,395
Cataracts28,15521,500-37,10028,15521,500-37,100
Vision disorders, age-related15,36010,900-19,40015,36010,900-19,400
Hearing loss, adult onset24,61014,000-43,80024,61014,000-43,800
Rheumatic heart disease607404-8636,1525,945-6,404
Hypertensive heart disease888542-1,3589,9699,612-10,400
Ischemic heart disease3,9212,525-5,36971,87470,400-73,300
Cerebrovascular disease11,0967,209-17,10062,65258,700-68,600
Inflammatory heart diseases1,309765-1,9085,8125,263-6,406
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease8,4735,670-12,40033,45730,600-37,300
Asthma7,7134,479-13,60011,5138,277-17,400
Peptic ulcer disease1,154556-1,7374,8024,203-5,383
Cirrhosis of the liver2,3291,391-3,28913,63512,700-14,600
Appendicitis6042-81377358-397
Nephritis and nephrosis546288-8699,0788,811-9,392
Benign prostatic hypertrophy2,3041,229-3,9992,6131,538-4,308
Skin diseases2,9241,764-4,4253,6972,535-5,197
Rheumatoid arthritis3,4332,132-5,4363,6452,344-5,648
Osteoarthritis13,6518,636-22,40013,6678,652-22,400
Gout2,7681,697-4,0532,7851,714-4,070
Low back pain1,6761,093-2,6701,6921,109-2,685
Congenital anomalies9,2957,047-11,70023,53821,300-26,000
Dental caries4,7522,771-8,4294,7522,771-8,429
Periodontal disease206124-368207125-369
Edentulism2,2931,349-3,4762,2931,349-3,476
Group III
Road traffic accidents7,1956,489-8,06332,02231,300-32,900
Poisonings135107-1707,1197,088-7,151
Falls8,0557,035-9,20313,58212,600-14,700
Fires2,7192,199-3,28610,0819,557-10,600
Drownings3733-419,3899,379-9,387
Self-inflicted injuries1,2361,040-1,48917,67717,500-17,900
Violence5,4054,734-6,42018,13517,500-19,100
War1,5691,321-1,8876,4966,240-6,806

Source: Authors' calculations.

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