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5. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Burden of Disease and Risk Factor Estimates

Table 5.7: Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges Arising from Uncertainty in Disability Weights for the Top 40 Causes of the Burden of Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2001

Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges Arising from Uncertainty in Disability Weights for the Top 40 Causes of the Burden of Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2001
Rank	Uncertainty range	Cause	DALYs (thousands)	Uncertainty range
1	1-1	Perinatal conditions	89,121	85,900-93,800
2	2-2	Lower respiratory infections	83,579	82,300-85,700
3	3-4	Ischemic heart disease	71,874	70,400-73,300
4	3-4	HIV/AIDS	70,857	68,900-73,000
5	5-6	Cerebrovascular disease	62,652	58,700-68,600
6	5-6	Diarrheal diseases	58,685	55,100-63,800
7	7-11	Unipolar depressive disorders	43,429	30,600-53,800
8	7-9	Malaria	39,944	39,000-41,100
9	8-10	Tuberculosis	35,882	34,400-37,900
10	9-12	Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease	33,457	30,600-37,300
11	10-13	Road traffic accidents	32,022	31,300-32,900
12	9-14	Cataracts	28,155	21,500-37,100
13	8-21	Hearing loss, adult onset	24,610	14,000-43,800
14	12-15	Congenital anomalies	23,538	21,300-26,000
15	13-15	Measles	23,097	23,000-23,200
16	15-18	Violence	18,135	17,500-19,100
17	16-19	Self-inflicted injuries	17,677	17,500-17,900
18	17-22	Diabetes mellitus	15,806	14,400-17,900
19	15-25	Protein-energy malnutrition	15,450	12,700-20,400
20	16-27	Vision disorders, age-related	15,360	10,900-19,400
21	16-36	Osteoarthritis	13,667	8,652-22,400
22	20-25	Cirrhosis of the liver	13,635	12,700-14,600
23	20-24	Falls	13,582	12,600-14,700
24	18-38	Asthma	11,513	8,277-17,400
25	23-29	Pertussis	11,408	10,900-12,100
26	19-40	Alcohol use disorders	11,009	7,286-16,900
27	18-40	Endocrine disorders	10,947	7,814-16,100
28	25-31	Trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers	10,697	10,700-10,700
29	22-39	Schizophrenia	10,530	7,793-13,200
30	27-34	Fires	10,081	9,557-10,600
31	27-34	Hypertensive heart disease	9,969	9,612-10,400
32	26-38	Alzheimer's and other dementias	9,641	8,158-11,300
33	29-36	Stomach cancer	9,613	9,577-9,643
34	25-40	Iron-deficiency anemia	9,488	7,530-13,000
35	31-37	Drownings	9,389	9,379-9,387
36	33-38	Nephritis and nephrosis	9,078	8,811-9,392
37	27-46	Bipolar affective disorder	8,681	5,642-12,100
38	24-47	Mental retardation, lead-caused	8,601	5,484-12,300
39	36-39	Tetanus	8,337	8,329-8,335
40	37-41	Liver cancer	7,943	7,926-7,952

Source: Authors' calculations.

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5.1 Age-Weighting Function Incorporated into the DALY
5.2 Effect of Age Weighting and Discounting on the YLL per Death at Various Ages for Females
5.3 Effect of Age Weighting and Discounting on the Male-Female Gap in YLL per Death
5.4 Effect on YLL per Death of Varying the Parameter Beta in the DALY Age-Weighting function
5.5 Effects of Changing the Discount Rate and Age Weighting on DALYs' Broad Cause and Age Composition, 2001
5.6 Relationship between the Rank Order of Causes of the Global Burden Using DALYs(3,1) and DALYs(3,0) in 2001
5.7 Relationship between the Rank Order of Causes of the Global Burden of Disease in 2001, Using Uniform Age Weights and 3 Percent Discounting and No Discounting
5.8 Effects of Changing the Discount Rate and Age Weighting on Global Rankings for the Top 20 Causes of the Burden of Disease, 2001
5.9 Effects of Changes in Key DALY Parameters on Proportion of the Global Disease Burden Attributable to Risk Factors
5.10 Effects of Changes in Key DALY Parameters on Proportion of the Regional Disease Burden Attributable to Risk Factors for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
5.11 Effects of Changes in Key DALY Parameters on Proportion of the Regional Disease Burden Attributable to Risk Factors for High-Income Countries
5.12 Uncertainty Ranges for Child and Adult Mortality for WHO Member States, 2001
5.13 Uncertainty in Average Life Expectancy at Birth, by Sex and DCPP Region, 2001
5.14 Sensitivity of Uncertainty Ranges to Changes in Between-Country Correlation Assumptions
5.15 Assumed 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges for Disability Weights Based on Constant Variance Distribution for Logit of Disability Weight
5.16 Relative 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges for Disability Weights Based on the Assumption of a Constant Variance Distribution for Logit of Disability Weight across All Disability Weights
5.17 Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty in Total DALYs(3,0) Due to Uncertainty in Estimation of Disability Weights, Top 20 Causes, Low- and Middle-Income Countries
5.18 PAF Sensitivity to Exposure and Relative Risks

5. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Burden of Disease and Risk Factor Estimates

Table 5.7: Estimated 95 Percent Uncertainty Ranges Arising from Uncertainty in Disability Weights for the Top 40 Causes of the Burden of Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2001

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